Kamolpob Veerapala, acting director-general of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), said the key drag is GDP growth, which is expected to rise only 2% this year, slowing from 2.5% in 2024, reports the Bangkok Post.
"Thailand continues to face risks from global trade, the US import tariffs and protectionist measures affecting exports next year," he said. "2026 economic growth is forecast at just 1.7%, within a range of 1.2–2.2%."
Like this year, the market in 2026 will benefit from two property measures, the extension of transfer and mortgage fee cuts to 0.01% from 2% and 1%, respectively, for homes priced at B7 million or less, and eased loan-to-value rules. Both measures run from April-May 2025 until June 30, 2026.
REIC forecasts nationwide residential transfers will continue to decline, dropping 7.3% from 2024 to 322,500 units in 2025 and by a further 0.7% to 320,200 units in 2026.
These will mark consecutive yearly drops since 2022, when transfers rose 14.3% before falling 6.6% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.
Residential transfer value is set to follow the same downtrend, falling 10.9% from 2024 to B873.4 billion in 2025, and easing a further 0.8% to B866.2bn in 2026.
This comes after the 2022 peak of B1.06 trillion, up 12.8% from 2021, followed by declines of 1.7% to B1.04trn in 2023 and 6.3% to B980.6bn in 2024.
Supported by the two property measures and lower interest rates, residential transfers in the third quarter of 2025 rose 9.1% to 84,397 units, with value increasing 7.7% to B226.1bn.
Transfers are expected to continue rising in the fourth quarter to 95,484 units worth B255.6bn, up 13.1% and 13%.
"The government’s quick-win schemes, including the co-payment programme, together with the tourism recovery, are helping stimulate the economy and lift homebuyer sentiment in the fourth quarter," said Mr Kamolpob.
In the first nine months of 2025, Phuket, Rayong and Nakhon Ratchasima were the only provinces in the top 10 by transfer value that recorded year-on-year growth in both residential transfer numbers and value.
Phuket saw 7,915 units worth B28bn, up 8.5% and 7.8%. Rayong recorded 8,355 units worth B18bn, rising 6.1% and 5.6%. Nakhon Ratchasima posted 5,281 units valued at B11.6bn, increasing 2.3% and 6.7%.