Fears that Red Bull Racing would obliterate the field this weekend based on preseason testing proved unfounded in the first qualifying session of the year, with Ferrari and in particular Leclerc up for the fight.
Verstappen took provisional pole after the first laps of Q3, but his slender 0.059-second margin over Leclerc looked vulnerable given the Monegasque had used a pre-worn set of tyres.
The Dutchman tried to take the battle out of Leclerc’s hands, and though he made a big step with his second lap, his time of 1 minute 29.179 seconds was still slower than the Ferrari had set to top Q2.
But Leclerc failed to improve in line with expectations with his sole flying lap on fresh rubber, finding a tiny gain of just 0.073 seconds and allowing Verstappen to pinch an unlikely pole.
“To really get everything out of it in Q3 was a little more difficult,” he said. “But of course I’m very happy to be on pole.
“To be honest, it was a little unexpected but luckily in qualifying the car came to us.
“I’m confident that we can have a strong race.”
Leclerc kicked himself to miss a shot at pole position, lamenting that he expected Red Bull Racing to have Ferrari covered on race pace.
“I’m a bit disappointed, but we did a good qualifying,” he said. “It was there in the car. I think we lost a little bit of rhythm with the used set of [softs] in Q3.
“We really think that Red Bull is still ahead by quite a bit in the race. We’ll see. If there’s an opportunity, as always I’ll go for it.”
George Russell put Mercedes third and 0.306s off the pace, a strong turnaround from this time last year, when the team effectively wrote off its season, though the Briton expected the gap to be larger in the grand prix.
“Time will tell tomorrow,” he said. “We’ve obviously made a big step forwards in single lap and with quali pace. We hope we haven’t comprised the race pace at all.
“I think it’ll be a close fight between everybody other than Max.”
Carlos Sainz qualified fourth in a super tight four-car pack comprising Russel and himself on the second row and Sergio Pérez ahead of Fernando Alonso on the third two, the quartet split by only 0.057 seconds.
McLaren teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will line up seventh and eighth, though Norris lamented a mistake in the first sector costing him a loftier position on the grid.
Lewis Hamilton was subdued in ninth, while Nico Hülkenberg was superb to make the top 10 for Haas after a strong focus on race pace throughout last week’s preseason test and this round’s three hours of practice.
Yuki Tsunoda took his newly rebranded RB car to 11th on the grid, though he was only 0.007 seconds shy of a place in the top 10 shootout.
Lance Stroll couldn’t match Aston Martin teammate Alonso on his way to 12th ahead of Thai driver Alex Albon’s Williams and Daniel Ricciardo in the second RB.
Kevin Magnussen failed to fire on his way to 15th, unable to access the same single-lap pace that took Hülkenberg into the top 10 with a lap almost 0.7 seconds quicker than the Dane.
Sauber duo Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu will line up 16th and 17th. Just 0.001 seconds separated the teammates, who missed out on a shot at the top 15 by only 0.1 seconds.
Logan Sargeant qualified 18th for Williams. The American is still yet to outqualify teammate Albon after a rare season whitewash in his maiden 2023 campaign.
Alpine’s dreadful preseason testing form translated into a dire back-of-the-grid start, with Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly powerless but to start 19th and 20th for the Renault-owned French manufacturer.