Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong said the TAT reported its target for 2026 to the ministry, which saw the overall revenue target rise by 5% to B2.8trn, noting that this would be implemented under a principal idea of promoting “value over volume”, reports the Bangkok Post.
Under this target, foreign arrivals would record a revenue increase of 8% to B1.63trn, while domestic revenue would increase by 3% to B1.17trn from 214 million domestic trips, a 5% increase year-on-year.
However, Mr Sorawong said even though the TAT has set the direction for next year with a specific goal, the government would enhance the growth to as great a degree as it can to enable the result to exceed the target.
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency aims to change the perspective of Thai tourism to “The New Thailand”, prioritising value over volume.
It would focus on four aspects: adjusting the structure of the tourism industry to quality tourism, distributing opportunities to local areas, creating new attractions by designing experiences that meet the needs of specific tourist groups, and joining hands with all sectors to head towards sustainability.
She said it would achieve a greater balance, with 58% revenue from the international market and 42% from the domestic market.
In the short term, it would continue implementing market recovery measures, while boosting new emerging foreign markets to help sustain the industry over the long run.
As of July 16, the short-haul markets tallied 12.1mn, a 13.1% decrease year-on-year. It accounted for only 42.8% of the target this year, according to the TAT.
Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, deputy governor of international marketing for Asia and South Pacific at the TAT, said short-haul markets still have to face the perception of an unsafe image for Thailand, a sluggish Chinese economy and a flight capacity recovery of only 78% compared to 2019.
For the long-haul markets, Thailand welcomed over 5.8mn, increasing 14% year-on-year, as of July 13.
Chiravadee Khunsub, the TAT’s deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, said the long-haul market is expecting strong forward bookings for the remainder of the year, plus new direct and chartered flights.
However, challenges remain with geopolitical tensions, economic pressures as well as rivalry from rising competitors within Asia.
In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Japan and China experienced a 21%, 15%, 24% and 30% increase in visitors year-on-year, respectively.
Tourism Revival in Reverse
Over the past three years, Thai tourism has been struggling to regain the peak it once reached prior to the pandemic, while neighbouring countries Malaysia and Vietnam have already surpassed their performance in 2019, recording 37mn and 17mn tourist arrivals, respectively.
The closest opportunity occurred in 2024 when Thailand welcomed 35.5mn foreign tourists, an increase of 26% year-on-year.
However, repeating the success of 2019 when 39.9mn foreign tourists arrived and spending hit B1.9trn is unlikely to occur in 2025, given that Thailand only attracted 16.6mn foreign arrivals in the first half, dipping 4.6% year-on-year.
Even if Thailand was actually able to achieve the revenue goal of B2.8trn next year, there is still a long way to reach the B3trn earned in 2019, said the Bangkok Post in a report posted online yesterday (July 21).
During the pandemic, Thailand saw a sharp plunge from 39.9mn tourists in 2019 to just 427,000 in 2021.
A modest rebound just began in the second half of 2022 after the government lifted entry restrictions on July 1, including the Thailand Pass registration and mandatory health insurance.
Signs of hope became more evident in 2023, when the country experienced an unexpected surge to 28mn tourists, up from only 11mn in 2022. This growth was largely driven by the reopening of China’s borders in January 2023.
At the time, the TAT anticipated a smooth path to full recovery, fuelled by pent-up demand across global markets.
However, a closer look in 2024 revealed that the Chinese market, which accounted for 25% of total visitors in 2019, had been recovering slowly.
Its visitors to Thailand might appear to have grown impressively, doubling from 3.5mn in 2023 to 6.73mn in 2024, but the growth trend weakened significantly toward the end of the year.
A staggering 453.7% increase in January 2024 dwindled to just 25.6% in December, despite it being the high season.
In the first half of this year, the crisis in the Chinese market has become more apparent, with only 2.26mn arrivals, a 34% year-on-year decline.
While the sluggish Chinese economy has been a contributing factor over the past two years, it alone cannot explain the downturn as other countries have continued to attract large amounts of Chinese travellers.
Vietnam saw a 144% increase to 2.7mn in the first six months of this year, while Japan recorded a 62.9% rise to 3.92mn.
Former TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said that the market downturn in the past few years mostly stemmed from Asian travellers, particularly Chinese, which saw the daily average drop by half, from 21,380 in January 2025 to an average of 12,000 daily visitors in the first six months.
He said that if this trend persists in the second half, Thailand might have only 4-5mn Chinese visitors in 2025, which will be the first time in 12 years that the number has fallen below the 5mn benchmark, excluding the COVID-19 lockdown period.
CHRONIC ILLNESS
The main obstacles to the goal of 40mn tourists have been mostly attributed to prolonged internal factors, particularly safety issues, which were like a chronic illness, said Mr Yuthasak.
Every tragic incident in the past always led to a dramatic drop in the Chinese market, including the Erawan shrine bombing in 2015 and the deadly [Phoenix] boat accident in Phuket in 2018.
This year, the abduction of the Chinese actor Wang Xing from Thailand, plus the collapse of the 30-storey building intended to house the State Audit Office on March 28, were the final nails in the coffin, which led to a drastic fall of inbound Chinese.
According to the latest Chinese Traveller Sentiment Report by Dragon Trail International in April, the safety perception of Thailand has plunged to 19%, from 26% in September 2024.
These concerns were echoed by the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index (TTDI) 2024, in which Thailand’s ranking in the travel and tourism socioeconomic impact section plunged to 106, while the safety and security index ranking nosedived from 86 to 102, stemming from low confidence in local police and in safety walking alone at night.
Mr Yuthasak said it will be difficult for Thailand to return to the glory days if it does not seriously tackle these problems.
“Thailand has been resilient in every crisis. But the current situation is different as we’ve lost the ability to adapt to changes and cannot solve the ongoing decline in confidence,” he said.
He said the only way Thailand can reach 40mn annual arrivals is by having the same Chinese market volumes as in 2019.
INADEQUATE COMPENSATION
Mr Yuthasak, who was in charge during the peak period in 2019 and the rock-bottom period in 2021, said that even though Thailand could compensate for the lack of the Chinese market and gain a large volume, the remaining question is about revenue, noting that it would be hard to match the B1.9trn recorded in 2019.
He said the Malaysian market surged to No.1 for Thailand in the first half, but their spending power is questionable.
In terms of revenue, Malaysians spent B21,450 during a stay of 4.17 days on average, while Chinese travellers spent B42,428 during their 7.35-day tour.
“Every single Chinese tourist we lose means we must fill the revenue gap with two Malaysian tourists, which might not be practical, considering the stark contrast between a population of 35mn in Malaysia and 1.4 billion in China,” said Mr Yuthasak.
To fix the income gap, TAT this year also put more focus on European travellers, whose spending per head is twice as high as the Chinese.
Suksit Suvunditkul, president of the southern chapter of the Thai Hotels Association, said the long-haul markets in the last high season were extremely robust, as they helped push up average room rates in four- and five-star hotels in Phuket to a record high.
However, the situation was a stark contrast entering the low season, as the island experienced a quieter period than the same time in 2023–24.
In June 2025, Mr Suksit said the occupancy rate in Phuket stood at 59%, down from 72% in the corresponding period in 2024 and about the same level as in 2023, but the average room rate was recorded at only B2,394, trailing behind B2,746 in 2024 and B2,617 in 2023.
“The situation in this low season is more severe than those of the past few years. Hotels that still perform well are those that can target Indian and Middle East markets,” he said.
LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS
Mr Yuthasak said Thailand not only lost market share due to poor tourist safety, but its old charm as an affordable destination was no longer attracting tourists due to soaring living costs.
According to the 2024 TTDI, Thailand’s price competitiveness sits at 48th, dropping by three spots from the previous survey.
This is obviously against the travel trend on the mainland, where Qióngyóu (budget travel) has been trending among travellers seeking the best value for money trips.
Mr Yuthasak suggested Thailand use this crisis to change from a ‘More for Less’ to a ‘Less for More’ approach by setting a revenue target based on appropriate arrival numbers that match carrying capacity and can ensure quality tourism experiences.
“Optimisation for maximum economic impacts is the key to solving this crisis. This new direction might need two to three years to achieve, but Thailand still has potential due to its strong foundations in tourism and services,” he said.