KSAM projects volatility for global markets next year, but sees clear structural opportunities emerging in American and Chinese AI technology, backed by fundamentals rather than speculation, said chief investment officer Sira Klongvicha.
Healthcare is also poised to outperform, while gold remains a crucial hedge, with a recommended portfolio allocation of 5-10%. In contrast, Thailand’s stock market is projected to recover gradually, reports the Bangkok Post.
"The global economy is gaining momentum heading into 2026, supported by easing fiscal pressures in the US, improving global trade, and likely rate cuts by major central banks," Mr Sira said.
The US economy remains resilient, Europe is stabilising as inflation moves closer to its target, while China continues to struggle with weak consumption and property sector stress, he said. Japan is improving on stronger wage growth and supportive government policy.
Given this backdrop, KSAM sees technology and AI as the strongest multi-year growth engines. The bond market is entering a more constructive phase as expectations for global rate cuts solidify. Additional tailwinds include fast-advancing AI applications, ongoing digital transformation, and a supply chain adjustment driven by US tax and industrial policy, noted the firm.
The Federal Reserve’s plan to wind down its US$40 billion-per-month quantitative tightening programme also provides liquidity support. However, KSAM cautions that risks remain in terms of US tax reform uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, potential political instability in Europe, and labour market disruption from AI adoption.
For 2026, the company highlights four themes, comprising American AI-related stocks, US equities benefiting from tax policy incentives, healthcare companies trading at attractive valuations, and Chinese tech names riding the country’s rapid AI rollout.
Tanitpong Chuenpibal, chief investment risk officer at KSAM, said Thailand’s economy is improving, supported by fiscal stimulus, stronger exports, and recovering manufacturing, while third-quarter earnings from listed companies exceeded expectations.
However, political uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment, and KSAM does not expect a strong election rally with the upcoming vote, he noted.
"Structural challenges, including slow progress towards a technology-driven economy, continue to undermine investor confidence. Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth is targeted at 1.8–2%, with softer momentum in 2026 due to the impact of US tax policy on global trade," said Mr Tanitpong.
Despite the subdued macro outlook, Thai equities still offer selective value. KSAM highlighted the market’s attractive valuations relative to regional peers and dividend yields above 4%. Banks remain the strongest earnings performers, with dividends as high as 7-8%.
The asset manager maintains a positive view on both Thai and global bonds going into 2026. The Fed is expected to cut rates gradually over 12-24 months, while Thailand’s low inflation, potentially turning negative in 2025, creates room for the Bank of Thailand to cut rates once or twice, bringing the policy rate to 1.00-1.25% by mid-2026, he said.
KSAM recommends a diversified portfolio allocation, with 48% equities led by US and Chinese technology stocks, 45% fixed income focusing on high-quality global and government bonds, 5-10% gold, and 2% Thai equities.
The company is nearing the end of 2025 with B715bn in assets under management, up 10% year-to-date and outpacing the industry by 3%. Mutual funds remain the company’s main growth engine, expanding 13% with B57bn in net inflows, representing 23% of the industry total, with KSAM ranking fifth among mutual fund houses as of September.