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Economy stymied by frequent crises

BANGKOK: Political instability has prevented Thailand from driving forward long-term policies that could become new growth engines for the country, says Nonarit Bisonyabut, a research fellow at Thailand Development Research Institute.

economics
By Bangkok Post

Monday 8 September 2025 12:47 PM


An electric vehicle charging outlet is shown at an automotive show in Bangkok in 2023. Photo: Bangkok Post / file

An electric vehicle charging outlet is shown at an automotive show in Bangkok in 2023. Photo: Bangkok Post / file

According to Mr Nonarit, Thailand must urgently address the impact of US tariffs, rising household debt and flooding in many areas, reports the Bangkok Post.

“In the longer term, we need leaders who can offer solutions for the country, those who can demonstrate that Thailand still has a future, inspire confidence among its people, and gain international recognition for making Thailand a country worth watching and a formidable competitor,” he said.

“We need leaders who can push forward consistent policies. The country should select a set of policies in areas where we excel, such as electric vehicles or semiconductors. Once chosen, they must be driven forward decisively so that Thailand can become either the world’s No.1 supply chain for these items or firmly linked to the world’s top brands.”

When political conflicts arise in Thailand, policies constantly change, preventing the development of long-term policies that can bear fruit, said Mr Nonarit.

More political problems mean shorter government lifespans, which in turn accelerates populist policies as governments try to secure re-election, he said.

"As a result, we only see cash handouts that merely help people get by from day to day. Meanwhile, public debt continues to mount, becoming a stranglehold that leaves insufficient fiscal space to push forward major initiatives," said Mr Nonarit.

"I think we must consider our industrial policy because we absolutely need to preserve our export markets. They are the heart of income generation and creating high added value."

In terms of industrial policy, he said the sector needs to regain prominence, as it had with the internal combustion engine automotive industry.

Thailand still has time to choose industries within the supply chain that can connect with others globally and generate income for the country, said Mr Nonarit.

He also pointed to tourism, as Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million tourists in 2019 before the pandemic spread.

The country has yet to return to that level and the tourism sector urgently needs revitalisation to near that peak for arrivals, said Mr Nonarit.

Thailand is also an ageing society, and he said the country’s policies should adapt to generate new sources of income, such as positioning Thailand as a medical hub.

Regarding Thailand’s economic expansion, Mr Nonarit said GDP growth this year is expected to tally 1.5-2%, likely settling around the midpoint of 1.7-1.8%.

However, next year also looks bleak, with growth potentially slipping below 2% again. Without strong policies to tackle both short- and long-term challenges, the economy will continue to stagnate, he said.

Thailand’s economy is likely to expand at such low levels until new hopes or fresh growth engines emerge, said Mr Nonarit.